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US presidential elections2016 poll tracker: LatestDonald Trump and HillaryClinton figures andforecasts

The clash between Donald Trump and

Hillary Clinton is set to be brutal,

with America being dominated by the

race to replace Barack Obama in the White

House.

Until election day on 8 November, follow

our poll tracker to keep on track on with

who’s top. It takes an average of the last five

polls published on RealClearPolitics.

19 May 2016 was the first time

that Republican Donald Trump pulled ahead

of Democrat Hillary Clinton in the average of

national polls. He was 0.2 percentage points

ahead of Clinton on May 22, leading to some

claiming “it’s probably time to panic” –

although the next poll put Clinton back

ahead.

Clinton had held a lengthy double-digit lead

over Trump, who was once a Republican

outsider. This has been eroded by the

popularity of Trump, although it has

somewhat opened up again after she secured

a pledge to work together from her

Democrat rival, Senator Bernie Sanders.

Trump’s polling had previously drawn close

to Clinton’s during last October, as

his appearance on Saturday Night Live

coincided with Clinton facing pressure in a

trial on the deaths of four Americans in

Libya in 2012.

Following a series of gaffes by Trump, the

Republican nominee has seen Clinton get

ahead in the polls again, now maintaining

around a six point lead.

A word of caution, however: polling so far

away from the election is unlikely to be

reflective of the final score. A lot can

change.

At this stage of the race in 2004, as Nate

Silver notes , John Kerry had a similar lead

over George W Bush as Clinton’s current lead

over Trump.

The New York Times has also worked out

that, at the the convention stage, a simple

polling average has differed from the final

result by about nine percentage points. So,

with the polls being so close, anything could

still happen.

Why are the US election polls so

close?

One of the reasons that the polls had been

closing is that the Republicans were

rallying behind Trump. This has since been

put under jeopardy, as a couple of big party

figures refused to endorse the nominee.

Meanwhile, a recent YouGov poll

showed that just over half of supporters

of Bernie Sanders – Clinton’s Democratic

rival – would back Clinton.

Sanders also polled better against Trump

than Clinton, while he was still in the

race. 61 per cent of his backers viewed Mrs

Clinton unfavourably, while 72 per cent say

she is “not honest and trustworthy”.

Despite this, Sanders has pledged his support

for the victorious Democrat nominee ,

saying: “This campaign is not about Hillary

Clinton, Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders or

any other candidate who is standing for

president. This campaign is about the needs

of the American people.”

Still, Clinton holds a big demographic

advantage over Trump. A Washington Post

poll indicated that 69 per cent of non-

whites and 52 per cent women favour

Clinton, while 57 per cent of whites and men

support Trump.

What about the American states?

When it comes to the final presidential race ,

the Democrat and Republican candidates will

go head to head to win the 50 American

states. Each state has a certain number of

electoral college votes based on population.

This system matters, as the popular vote is

less important than the electoral college vote.

If Clinton’s campaign is buoyed by big

Democratic states such as New York, New

Jersey, Illinois and California, these populous

states could lead her to victory.

For example, in 2008, Barack Obama won 53

per cent of the vote – but this led to 68 per

cent of the electoral college vote. Such highly

populated states played a large role when

they backed the current president.

Swing states – states that regularly switch

between Democrat and Republican between

elections – are also important.

States like Arizona, Florida, North

Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia have the

power to swing the election. So far, neither

Trump nor Clinton has a significant lead in

these crucial states.

Republican primaries map: How

Trump won over the Republicans

Democrat primaries map: How

Clinton held onto the Democrats

What are the odds on the American

presidential election?

It has long been said of predicting sporting

outcomes that the bookies don’t get it far

wrong, working out probabilities with

complicated mathematics based on the

choices of their thousands of paying punters.

After last year’s surprise General Election

result, many political followers have lost

faith in pollsters and prefer to look at the

odds to predict the future.

Hillary Clinton has been odds-on favourite

since the end of February, but Trump has

steadily caught her up as his Republican

rivals dropped out. Last July he was a 25/1

shot while Hillary was already at evens.

Ladbroke’s latest odds for the next US

president are:

Follorw Telegraph News

Follow @TelegraphNews

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